#75 The challenges of the challenge system

We tap our heads together to consider MLB's impending use of the automated ball strike system.

The Opener

1. The Guardians have surmounted a 15.5-game gap in the AL Central, beating the Tigers on Tuesday to make history and move into a tie atop the division. This also clinches the head-to-head tiebreaker for Cleveland. They took the lead against Detroit ace Tarik Skubal in a wild (and briefly scary) inning with two bunts, a wild pitch, a balk and an infield single.

2. Over in the NL’s postseason pressure cooker, the Mets took down the Cubs thanks to a huge Francisco Alvarez home run and reclaimed control of their own destiny as the Reds dropped a game to the Pirates.

3. The Mariners clinched a postseason spot with a win over the Rockies, while Jose Caballero secured a postseason berth for the Yankees by slapping a walkoff blooper against the White Sox. They also crept within one game of the Blue Jays, who fell to the Red Sox and have to face Garrett Crochet tonight.

Phew, that is (admittedly unexpectedly) a lot of really exciting and stake-ful baseball being played here in the final week of the season. We will return to that in Friday’s issue. For now, a brief look ahead to next season …

On Tuesday, Major League Baseball made official something that has been telegraphed for months — if not longer: The challenge system is coming in 2026.

This is a version of the automated ball-strike system that essentially functions like replay for pitch calls. The batter, pitcher, or catcher can challenge the home plate umpire’s call, with the review made by the high-tech cameras and computers tracking every pitch these days. Each team will start the game with two challenges and will only lose a challenge if it’s unsuccessful. If a team has used up both challenges in the first nine innings, it will receive an additional challenge to start extras (and again in subsequent extra innings if the team wouldn’t otherwise have one. In other words, you get a fresh challenge in each extra inning, unless you still have one left already).

This comes after years of testing both the challenge system and full ABS in the minors and in Spring Training. Which means I — and every other baseball writer — has had ample opportunity to analyze the system and talk to stakeholders. For instance, I’ve written about how the challenge system and full ABS each impact the role of catchers (which convinced me to vastly favor the challenge system), what big leaguers thought of the test run this past spring, and even why people were still pursuing umpiring when it seemed computers were coming for their jobs.

So, instead of a holistic overview, I’m just going to issue some calls about this news and then Zach will challenge them. Or not? If he wants. I think? We’ll figure this out.

– Hannah Keyser

First call: This is not “robo umps”

A through-line in my takes is that I don’t see the challenge system and full ABS as necessarily along the same spectrum. They employ the same technology, of course, but the implications are wildly different, and not just in terms of scale. If the computer was making every call, that would be robot umpires. The primary job of the home plate umpire would be supplanted by technological perfection.

To me, this is more similar to the existing role of replay than to a world where “robots” are creating an empirical underpinning for the building blocks of a baseball game. Not only are humans still calling the vast majority of pitches, humans are also deciding when to challenge. There is, in fact, an additional layer of subjectivity and strategy.

For the most part, I’m railing against what I consider a semantic overstep. It’s inaccurate click bait! Robo umps are evocative, but they’re not looming, lurking, encroaching, or arriving as unfeeling baseball overlords.

Everything is getting more optimized; AI is coming for all our careers; but sports remain the purview of stupid humans and their imperfect ability to call balls and strikes.

Zach Challenge? [Shakes head and makes no hand motion.] This is clearly correct. It adds that dash of human element, and potentially a skillful element. Instead of resigned or enraged acceptance of key calls, there will be a moment of suspense as batters and catchers (and maybe the occasional pitcher) make snap judgments that we will come to understand as plays, in a sense. And some players will be better than others.

Second call: This is not a slippery slope to robot umps